Many newcomers and old-timers of the market constantly reiterate that technical analysis is not applicable to digital currencies. They often argue that all power is concentrated in the hands of whales, who manipulate the market and enrich themselves at the expense of naive hamsters. They are also confident that the release of high-profile news destroys “entertaining geometry” on the analyst’s charts.
Among such irreconcilable skeptics are not only bitcoin-maximalists and supporters of long-term portfolio investment, but also so-called “nocoiners” – those who have missed the opportunity to buy BTC at a low price, or have sold everything, fearing a rapid collapse.
During the Baltic Honeybadger 2018 conference in Riga, a well-known trader and analyst Ton Weiss spoke about technical analysis, giving valuable advices to novice cryptoinvestors. He also talked about the prospects of the stablecoins, the impact of the Lightning Network on the price of bitcoin and when the bear market will end.
Ton Weiss argues that technical analysis works in all currencies. There is the concept of liquidity, which suggests that a lot of people are trading on the market. These people are united by a psychological factor. This means that at least 50% of the time they can do similar things. Technical analysis can tell a lot about the situation and mood in the market, it helps to trade.
“If you’re just starting out, then it’s better to stick to the Buy & Hold strategy. In this case, you need to slowly learn the basics of trading. After that, you should definitely practice with “image” money on a demo account. This is necessary to understand whether you are able to earn or not. Only after that you can slowly use real money. If all goes well, then trading can be a serious job.” – said Ton Weis.
Many people know Ton as a bitcoin-maximalist. He says that the rest of the cryptocurrencies can only be traded in order to get more bitcoins. In the long term, in 5-10 years, he does not see an alternative to BTC.
Ton also claims that stablecoins are very convenient, but their use is fraught with great risk. For example, no one knows if the USDT is fully secured by the US dollars. Even if i 100% is backed by fiat reserves, the government can still come and collect it. It is better to find a stock exchange that works with banks and supports fiat currencies. This is better than trading Tether, which can disappear any day.
The theme of Lightning Network (LN) was also touched.
“I’m not sure that LN will greatly affect the price of bitcoin in a bear market. In such a market, good news doesn’t particularly affect prices. If they somehow influence, the effect lasts for a week or two. But if the bad news is affected, it’s very seriously.” – said Ton.
Ton says that when the market capitalization reaches $ 1 trillion, with an objective assessment, the Bitcoin Dominance Index should reach 95-99%. Of course, we should not take into account some currencies whose offer amounts to billions of coins. For example, one coin was sold for $ 1 and now its capitalization is $ 1 billion.