2018 became a real shock for many crypto enthusiasts. Unfortunately, the price of Bitcoin did not meet the most positive expectations of crypto-enthusiasts and rolled back to the mid-2017 prices. The market capitalization in relation to the January peak values decreased by eight times. It is not surprising that even the most optimistic supporters of the Buy & Hold strategy and opponents of technical analysis are wondering what the price of Bitcoin will be in the near future, in a month, six months, a year…
Willy Woo predictions
Independent crypto-researcher and creator of the NVT indicator Willy Woo presented the following plausible scenario in a one year’s horizon:
The first thing that Willy Woo pays attention to is moving average, MA within a period of 200 days. The upward price intersection of the red line and the rapprochement of the latter with the 200-week MA will signal bullish sentiment in the market.
The range between $ 2,200 and $ 2,900 is the “surrender zone”, as in the worst periods of the 2014-2015 bear market. This range is optimal for placing purchase orders.
The green line for the 200-week MA is the lower boundary of the accumulation zone in the range of about $ 3,600- $ 4,550. This area, according to Woo, the most will be relevant in the II quarter of 2019. At this time, the bear market is expected to come to an end. This, in particular, will be indicated by the transaction volumes for various coins, changes in the HODL structure, the NVT indicator, etc. If Bitcoin falls below the level of $ 1,300, then the media will probably be replete with materials that “Bitcoin has died”.
Willy Woo emphasizes that his forecast is only the version with the most key levels and in no case a call to action.
According to CoinDesk analysts, the next key support level is likely to be the $ 2,900-3,000 area.
Thus, during the 2014-2015 bear market, the altcoin market sank 85% in relation to its maximum. Since the beginning of this year, the market has shrunk more than 10 times – the drawdown relative to the historical maximum exceeded 90%
Analyst Sam Uimet notes that since the “triangle” was broken, the first key goal could be the $ 2,676 mark in December. It corresponds to the width of this geometric shape, formed during the downward price movement.
It is widely believed that Bitcoin shows growth with the approach of the so-called halving when the reward for the Bitcoin miners blocks is halved. The argument of the supporters of this theory is based on the fact that BTC is becoming a more scarce asset. In other words, with unchanged demand, a decrease in asset supply leads to an increase in its price.
Halving occurs every four years, that is, every 210 thousand blocks. The nearest such event should take place approximately on May 26, 2020. After this date, the miner’s reward will not be 12.5 BTC, as it is now, but 6.25 BTC.
The last halving, which was the second in the history of Bitcoin, took place on July 9, 2016. As you can see on the chart, a few weeks before this event, there was a steady increase in the price:
Immediately after the halving, there was some decline. It served as a kind of respite before the growth that began only a few months later. According to Plan B, a Twitter user, Bitcoin shows the lowest rates for 17-12 months before the halving. One year before the price starts to rise
Thus, the cryptocurrency market throughout the past year was, indeed, significantly overheated. HYIP reached its peak at the turn of 2017-2018, and now the market is still looking for a balance point.
Different traders and market researchers have their own approaches to technical analysis, therefore, the forecasts may differ. Therefore, a thorough and competent fundamental analysis aimed at studying the long-term prospects of individual coins is always important. In particular, it is designed to assess the real value of an asset and determine how its price currently corresponds to the realities of the market.