On October 31, 2008, six weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, one of the largest investment banks in the world, which eventually became a global catastrophe, a person or a group of people under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published a white paper. It was describing the first in the history decentralized payment system.
The emergence of Bitcoin has become the apogee of many years of attempts to create an alternative monetary system without a single point of failure, reversibility of transactions and total surveillance.
The current head of Blockstream, Dr. Adam Beck, who designed the Proof-Of-Work algorithm, ignored the letter from Nakamoto when he asked him to evaluate the concept of Bitcoin. The creator of b-money, Wei Dai, did the same, although he later regretted it. James Donald, a veteran of the cryptographic movement, questioned the idea because of the constantly growing amount of data in the blockchain, and only Hal Finney began to actively help the development of the project, despite the fact that he sometimes lost his enthusiasm.
The personality of Satoshi Nakamoto and the motives for creating Bitcoin still remain a mystery, which they are trying to unravel outside the community. Nevertheless, the fact that the genesis block of the first cryptocurrency contains the title of the article “Chancellor on brink of the second bailout for banks” from the British publication The Times may indicate that the global financial crisis of 2008 and the repurchase policy of large banks States was one of the incentives of Nakamoto. This is indirectly confirmed by the next entry on the P2P Foundation website dated February 11, 2009.
“The main disadvantage of traditional money is that they need trust. We must believe the central banks, although they have repeatedly betrayed this trust and devalued fiat money. We have to trust banks in keeping our money and electronic transfer, however they constantly borrowed them, creating credit bubbles and leaving almost nothing in reserves, ”Nakamoto wrote.
One of the fundamental pillars of Bitcoin has become a limited issue, laid down at the protocol level. Despite the fact that due to the random error of Bitcoin Core developers in 2016, the network foundation was subjected to an existential threat, the cumulative number of bitcoins should never exceed 21 million.
The fact that this characteristic of Bitcoin can be the strongest argument in its favor in the context of the global recession, the first Bitcoin.org administrator Marty Malmi guessed. Since millions of people then lost their jobs and savings, something not subject to inflation, in his opinion, should have attracted their attention.
It was in such difficult for the world conditions that Bitcoin appeared – an alternative peer-to-peer payment system. Then the first cryptocurrency expected a long and exciting way, ups and downs, adoration and hatred, the formation of a solid strong community and its subsequent split [SegWit2x and Bitcoin Cash].
In September, Nouriel Roubini, a well-known Bitcoin critic and professor of economics at New York University, also known as Doctor Doom, who predicted the crisis of 2008, said that by 2020 all the necessary conditions would be ripe for the global recession to start. Moreover, in his opinion, this crisis will be much tougher and longer than the last time.
Thus, he argues, the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, the trade wars of the Trump administration and the unresolved situation with the debts of some eurozone members against the backdrop of the bubbling American stock market will have a negative impact on the global economy.
In one of his recent posts on Twitter, Roubini stressed, not without pride, that his articles are translated into dozens of languages and published on hundreds of news resources in hundreds of countries. Obviously, to ignore the fame and influence of an economist is really not worth it, since many listen to him precisely as a person who predicted a crisis.
However, few people remember Roger Babson, who predicted the collapse of the stock market in 1929. His trick was to predict a financial collapse from year to year until it really happened, which eventually earned him a reputation as almost a genius when the Great Depression began.
It was extremely difficult to catch Babson on constant false predictions since it was not possible to google his previous statements in the 1920s. Now it’s quite difficult to remove anything from the World Wide Web, but the predictors are not becoming more careful.
It turned out that Roubini predicted that the “perfect storm” in the global economy would begin in 2013 (CNBC), the bubble in the US stock market would break in 2016 (Business Insider), and another credit bubble would inflate by 2017 (Project Syndicate). In this case, the argument, as in the case with the forecast for 2020, was largely repeated.
In his current forecast, the economist noted that once the “ideal storm” begins, countries with dominant populist movements and governments on the verge of insolvency will not be able to redeem debts of financial organizations.